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2011 Subscribers Predictions & Trends
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Post by
254899
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
Adamsm
People played it to death on Beta; those you see making the decline are probably burned out.
Post by
Azrile
You answered your second question in the first part.
People played the expansion like crazy the first month it came out. There will never be a time in the next year when activity will be as high as it was in December.
And the most important thing to take from it.. áctivity´ is very VERY unrelated to subscriber totals. Activity is much more related to new content introduction. Every time there is a new patch, Activity will skyrocket but that does not mean tons of people resubscribed... just like if activity falls a month after new content doesn´t mean subscribers quit.
Is there less activity now then there was in December? Yes
Are there less subscribers then there was in December? No...it´s probably nearly identical.
As to predictions... I think WOW has basically run it´s course with this expansion. They released numbers a few months ago, and they will probably release them again soon saying they have a new record ( I think the last one was 13M). There is no doubt they picked up a million more since then.. but I doubt it is going to go higher.
I also don´t think it is going to drop much in the next year. SWTOR isn´t going to be a hit. It sounds nice on paper, but the gameplay is extremely slow and boring. Rift looks really nice, but it isn´t mainstream like SWTOR and if it becomes huge, it will follow the EVE model and will take a year or two until word of mouth makes it grow.
Neither will impact wow in 2011
Post by
254899
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Post by
166779
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Post by
tuckmuck203
Rift looks really nice, but it isn´t mainstream like SWTOR and if it becomes huge, it will follow the EVE model and will take a year or two until word of mouth makes it grow.
Neither will impact wow in 2011
Actually Rift has become fairly well known. If anything so far were to be dubbed the WoW killer, Rift is it. Yes, I do know taht the only thing that will kill WoW is Blizzard, but what I'm saying is that Rift has more right to taht title than any other MMORPG currently on the market.
Post by
278980
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295513
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269281
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446469
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Post by
Cambo
What the info doesnt show is the reason for the declines.
I know many players in my guild have stopped playing due to financial reasons, or studying, going abroad, starting families etc. It isn't all because they are tired of WoW.
Post by
Koper
Someone should make a graph about the amount of people trying to warn everyone about the imminent death of wow :P
Post by
Adamsm
Someone should make a graph about the amount of people trying to warn everyone about the imminent death of wow :P
If we did that, we'd denude the world of trees.
Post by
Amry
Similar post here:
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/841644-2011-Subscribers-Predictions-amp-Trends
I dread the future release of Guild Wars 2 and Tera, if this is what will happen every time a new MMO is released.
Post by
Azrile
Rift looks really nice, but it isn´t mainstream like SWTOR and if it becomes huge, it will follow the EVE model and will take a year or two until word of mouth makes it grow.
Neither will impact wow in 2011
Actually Rift has become fairly well known. If anything so far were to be dubbed the WoW killer, Rift is it. Yes, I do know taht the only thing that will kill WoW is Blizzard, but what I'm saying is that Rift has more right to taht title than any other MMORPG currently on the market.
Rift sold somewhere around 500k to 750k boxes. Those are initial sales. It also had an extremely open beta, which means most people who wanted in the game, are already in.
Don´t get me wrong, I am excited that it launched so polished. Hopefully it does well over the coming year so developers learn that they can´t release incomplete junk like AOC and expect players to subscriber for 3 years until it is fixed.
But I think the verdict is coming in on Rift. It is like WOW, slightly different. it has extremely fast leveling.. and not much endgame. It pulled a lot of people who were bored with WOW, but its lack of endgame or things to do will make those players get just as bored. It also is nowhere near balanced yet (again, it is well done).
I think with 500k boxes sold, it is half of what AOC or Warhammer sold. Both of those games, though, ended up with significantly fewer subscribers after only a few months. Becuase of Rifts polish, i expect it will maintain those levels, but it just does not have enough content to keep players entertained for very long.
Post by
115812
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Post by
254899
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Post by
Porcell
Forgetting about the unnecessary bump when there are other topics going on right now...
http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/05/09/world-of-warcraft-subscriptions-decline-slightly-to-11-4-million-worldwide-new-premium-mount-soon/
About half of the total subscribers are in the Chinese market
Source?
; recently they released WOTLK so it can be assumed that the Chinese market is growing.
Therefore, all the subscriber losses are from the Western US/EU market.
Supposition. Source?
A lot of people paid their subscriptions 3 month, 6 months or 1 year in advance so even if they quit they will still show up as active subscribers for some time to come.
Source?
For the CEO to come out and admit that things are not going so well
He didn't say that.
I believe this drop in subscribers is not just merely a slight decline but a cataclysmic contraction in the Western market. Complaints on the forums about empty/dying realms and a rush of changes in recent patches provides anecdotal evidence that things are not going well.
Anecdotal evidence is an oxymoron.
The only "FACT" we have here is that current subscription is at 11.6 million. There are people attempting to draw any number of wild conclusions from that number that are just not logical or indicative of what is happening or will happen with WoW.
Post by
Murrdurr
People trying to get accurate info from warcraftrealms are funny.
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